Football - Trends

Everyone knows the rule by now: the team at the bottom of the Premiership at Christmas will be relegated.

Clubs such as Notts Forest in '93 and the Hammers in '03 were too classy to go down according to pundits, but they dropped down. Whichever team finds themselves propping up the table this time may as well just give up right away, and spare their dismayed fans more depression.

But what about the odds at this time of year? Do they truly reflect which clubs will be safe and can they really reveal which teams will win the major divisions in England and Scotland?

The one thing stats have taught us by now is that very few clubs are safe or guaranteed success until the final few weeks of the season. That's why this time of the season - October and November - provides excellent value for gamblers. If you really fancy a team to do well, or be relegated, you can find generous odds on offer because the bookies are still making plenty of mistakes.

Last season provides evidence. You might think Arsenal, Norwich City and Plymouth Argyle were nailed-on to win their respective divisions in October last year. But they weren't. Arsenal were ranked third - yes, third - in the Premiership prices behind Manchester United and Chelsea, while Norwich and Plymouth, both eventual champions, were still available at extremely generous prices.

By Christmas, the odds on footie teams are priced more accurately by the bookies. So if you know alot about a certain division than the bookie, now is the time to have a bet and snag yourself some great odds. Our division-by-division summary of some of the best prices on 6 October 2003 shows how value bets were still available this time last year. Also included are betting trends for the rest of the 2003-04 season that offers you some quality research for the current campaign:

PREMIERSHIP
Odds on 6 October 2003
Arsenal were the outsiders of the three title contenders, ranging in price from 15/8 to a more general 9/4 at the start of October. Manchester United's average price at the time was 11/8, with Chelsea quoted at 7/4 in the main. Sounds incredible as the all-conquering Gunners race towards another title - it shows that how dramatically things can change from October to May.

Wolves and Leicester City already occupied two of the relegation places, whilst Leeds were in sixteenth place, three points above the lowest total at the time.

2003-04 Trends
Manchester City held the decidedly unenviable record of going 14 consecutive games without a victory in the Premiership, but managed to survive with something to spare (eight points) by close of play. Despite plenty of media pressure on Kevin Keegan and his players, City never even entered the relegation trap door throughout the season.

In fact, it seems teams that eventually go down invariably loiter in the bottom three for long periods of the respective season.

Of the relegated teams, Wolves never rose above a relegation position, Leicester City occupied a position in the bottom four from early December onwards, and Leeds United slipped to 18th place after losing to Everton on 18 September. Leeds were always in the bottom five thereafter, and in a relegation position a month later until the end of the season.

DIVISION ONE
Odds on 6 October 2003
What incredible value. Eventual champions Norwich City were on offer at 20/1 (Ladbrokes), despite being in sixth position and just four points off the pace. West Bromwich Albion, one of the other clubs that were eventually promoted, were leading the division and at 9/4 generally.

Norwich even slipped to eighth place after losing to West Brom in mid-October, before sustaining a decent run (lost only one match) that took them to the top of the league just before Christmas, a position they held throughout the rest of the season.

Crystal Palace (promoted via the play-offs) were languishing in 15th place (11 points off the pace), and outside the top ten in the betting at 50/1. The teams that sat in second to fifth and seventh to tenth positions in the betting, ranging from 2/1 (West Ham) to 40/1 (Millwall), all lost out in the promotion race.

At the bottom, Wimbledon were already four points adrift, while the other two relegated teams, Bradford City and Walsall, were already in the bottom six.

2003-04 Trends
Nottingham Forest recorded the longest run without a win (17 games) in the division, but still managed to finish as high as 14th place by the end of the season. Conversely, Wigan Athletic could finish only seventh, despite being unbeaten for 14 matches at one stage of the season. Both Wigan and West Ham drew too many matches (17 - far more than most teams) to gain instant promotion.

DIVISION TWO
Odds on 6 October 2003
Plymouth were being touted at 33/1 and upwards as they stood six points behind another of the promoted sides, Brighton and Hove Albion (who were priced up between 3/1 and 13/2), yet Plymouth romped away with the title. QPR, sitting in second place, were 15/8 favourites to win the division and finished runners-up.

Two of the bottom three clubs at this stage of the season escaped relegation, with Grimsby, 14th in October, eventually going down. Rushden were only one place lower in 15th in October but also came to grief, alongside Notts County and Wycombe Wanderers, who occupied two of the bottom four places after 12 games.

2003-04 Trends
Bristol City fans will still be wondering how they lost out on promotion last year, having secured 11 consecutive victories between 20 December and 21 February. The aftermath of remaining in the same league has taken its toll as, at the time of writing this season, Bristol City had won only two of their opening seven games.

DIVISION THREE
Odds on 6 October 2003
Eight of the ten firms quoting prices already had Hull City at a top-priced even money, though fellow promoted clubs Huddersfield Town and Doncaster Rovers (eventual champions) could still be backed at 20/1 and 33/1 respectively. The next four teams behind Hull all lost out in the promotion race, ranging in average prices at the time between 5/1 (Oxford United) and 11/1 (Swansea City).

The team lying seventh in the league today should take note - relegated York City were there 12 months ago (and still sitting pretty in ninth place on Boxing Day), before plummeting down the division in sensational style during the remaining months of the season. The other relegated club, Carlisle United, were five points adrift of safety after just 12 games.

2003-04 Trends
Despite being unbeaten in 17 consecutive matches, Oxford could finish only ninth in the division, drawing 17 matches during the season, the same total as Lincoln City, who also missed out on promotion, albeit via the play-offs after losing to Huddersfield (3-4 on aggregate).

HOW TO BET
Now is the time to place value bets. Don't wait until the busy Christmas period when the bookies will be far more clued up. Study the trends above and then see how teams are faring this season. Use the information here as a reminder that things can change from October to May.

Our research shows that there are teams available at long prices that will eventually go on to win promotion, or be relegated, and net you a bundle. Research, research, research - the more you know about a club, or a particular division, the better your chances of correctly predicting the outcome at the top or bottom of the table come May, and the smaller the risk of missing the target with your October and November betting. Get on now before the prices come in.

TOP TIPS

Premiership
Opting for Blackburn to go down at 5/1, with Southampton at 7/2, you are basically taking 13/8 about coupling the two sides together regarding relegation. If both teams go down, so much the better.

Championship (was Division One)
It's been a while since Ipswich Town have started as well as they did this time, and - at 7/1 - they appeal, along with Leicester City (10/1).

League One (was Division Two)
In a division that lacks appeal from a betting perspective, Hull City are worth a small investment to win the title at 7/1.